It’s the slow season for investing right now. It’s the slow season for a lot of things. After a year full of Arab Spring, European crisis, and U.S. market volatility, about the only action left is what’s going on in Russia. No one is trying to beat a dead horse here, because the horse isn’t dead yet. To the contrary, news keeps ramping up as Russians have taken to the streets. There are implications beyond just the news.
Earlier this month, we blogged of Wall Street’s desire to draw Russian companies to American stock exchanges. The country’s politicians seem to have decided to stop punching themselves in the face by embarking on a new policy of reasonable behavior. This, toward building a national image of stability worthy of global investment both incoming and outgoing. Then, all of a sudden, what seemed to be a little pimple of Red Square protest turned out to be the Russo version of 2011’s bigger stuff, Arabs taking to the streets in rebellion and revolt, and Occupiers of this-and-that dotting cities across the U.S. and elsewhere.
The December 24 March on Moscow contained a bit of reverberation from some of the worst of what we heard coming from places like Egypt, Libya, and Syria throughout the year. Estimates of the Moscow protesters ranged anywhere from 20,000 to 160,000.
Despite the disparity in those estimates, it’s clear that the people have had it with their country’s controversially corrupt rulers. Viewpoints from political experts close to the scene see the Russian popular backlash as a stern warning to Mr. Putin and others that they had better change their ways.
Admonishments suggest that while Putin will be president again come this March 4, his and the government’s after-election behavior will require a policy of pre-emptive pacification of the citizenry. And it had better be sincere. Something altogether new for Russian leadership going back to forever.
The unexpected bubbling-over by the Russian populace was a true kick in the pants for a certain ruling arrogance. Again, never so untimely in the face of the country’s clear desire to surrender herself to a lot of trade-interested suitors.
The on-going uncertainty of possible escalation between the People and the Putin surely raises the needle just a little on the caution-meter for what was shaping up as some possible global investment opportunity.
There is, however, a more bullish side to this. With a climate of greater popular scrutiny following the upcoming presidential election, the government’s goal of achieving growth through broader global market affiliations could well be a far more secure proposition.
And it’s about time.